Interpretation: supply side changes drive market heat Central China glass late or rebound

Into September, the float glass market in general to continue the upward trend, the golden ninth and tenth theoretical peak season demand is not hot, but compared with the previous period did have some improvement. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, January-August housing construction area of 416.1 million square meters, down 10.0%, a decline of 1.3 percentage points narrower, the overall view of real estate data repair, float glass construction demand is showing signs of improvement. In addition to the support of the demand side, the recent slowdown in the market capacity, part of the new capacity ignition delayed, especially near the National Day ceremony, the northern region to promote air pollution prevention and control efforts, glass production capacity is expected to abate, the market for the post-market view stable in the strong. September 15, Xingtai City, the leading group of air pollution prevention and control work issued "Xingtai City Blue Sky Defense War to strengthen the responsibility of attack measures List", requiring September 15 before Shahe City to determine 6-8 coal-fired production lines to implement shutdown, October 10 before the cold furnace in place. Recently Shahe has been released to suspend production of a line, supported by the news in North China, East China, some companies issued another notice September 29 to October 4 price increase.

In the overall domestic price situation, the market trend in central China is relatively conservative, only a wave of concentrated price increases around the beginning of the month, the end of the month, individual enterprises are preferential promotions 1-2 yuan / weight box, the market trend seems elusive. Inventory, the overall inventory of enterprises in central China is not large, and most regional customer feedback orders are also more stable, so the supply and demand side of the relatively stable base, we infer that the larger factors are holidays, and the Wuhan Military Games local regional impact of conduction on the market mentality.

First of all, the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday will be divided before and after the market, followed by the National Day holiday at the end of the month, companies worried about the rise in inventory is transformed to the importance of shipping and price control. In the periphery of the implementation of the price increase is not clear, Central China wait and see to maintain the price advantage logical.

Second, the Wuhan Military Games will be held on October 18, a period of 10 days, before and after the race in and around Wuhan will implement traffic safety and security measures, large trucks on the road under strict control. In addition, we heard that some glass processing enterprises in Wuhan production will be affected, the original piece of business shipments will have slowed down the expected, advance control of inventory awareness.

In addition, after the middle of Wuhan Changli inventory growth accelerated, a small discount to local areas after other manufacturers wait-and-see mentality to enhance the price increase more cautious.

Current domestic capacity changes are still uncertain, overall, the supply side of the news has driven the market heat, driven by the periphery to raise, Central China market confidence has also improved. If the policy is implemented in place, the change in production lines in northern China will bring about an overall reduction in domestic production capacity, although there is a small increase in supply in southern China, the impact on the mindset of the industry is limited. At present, enterprises in central China inventory control in the normal range, part of the low level, is an important positive support for the market. Next month, domestic holiday factors, corporate inventories will be expected to increase by 2-3 days of volume, when the average inventory is maintained at about 12-13 days. Plus factory orders are more stable, there is still a rush demand next month, Wuhan local areas have limited impact on the overall situation, in the periphery of the price increase atmosphere, Central China still has the possibility of rebound.